Eastern US WX Group Hurricane Season Forecast
5/6/2023
Tropics Forecast Outlook
As we head into the tropical season we have some variables that will dictate this season outcome. So let’s dive into this a bit. First off this a forecast and no guarantee. The tropics will evolve with time with water temperature,shear,Saharan Dust. Seasons since 1966 the avg for storms is less than 10 hurricanes around 5 avg major hurricane avg is 2 or less. Stronger winds in eastern Atlantic and all have lot to do with El Niños but Caribbean Sea also needs to be looked at for shear. Also factors Saharan dust water temps all will play huge roles like noted at beginning. As this El nino just starting we will refrain from the potential for a less than 12 storm season. Possibly 2-3 will spin off in Gulf or off the east coast in those Gulf Stream waters. SST this warm leads us to believe limiting factors of a EL Nino May not inhibit the formation of tropical cyclones like it has in the past. And also we need to look at Cape Verde as the potential area to spin off so the Atlantic region and climatology speaking that’s indeed the area to have the bulk. If the High pressure stays located where it is now for the season in the Atlantic that could be enough for some landfalls but that’s always shifting so we refer back to climatology. We will see land fall just where of course. But the chances are less with neutral to strong El nino. Climate definitely warmer all data shows that. And that’s the difference between now and the past years that are in 1900’s if you wanted to reference back. Crazy thing is one brief period of 2-3 weeks that has slightly good conditions can make this go average to slightly above and that’s possible but that’s a discussion for middle of the season as we are too far out to know really. We as a group with all the information we have available have came up with a 2023 Tropical Outlook. Here’s our numbers for projected Storms.
Eastern US WX Group
15 Storms
7 Hurricanes
3 Major Hurricanes
1991-2020 Average
14.4 Named Storms
7.2 Hurricanes
3.2 Major Hurricanes
There’s so many driving factors in a tropical forecast. Trying to know what will happen past 5 days is impossible to know but trends are something to look at and also climo. For overall outlooks that what has happened and what to look for will be updated first week of every month if the tropical season. We will have details during storms as the occur. Til then be safe, and weather aware.
Tropics Forecast Outlook
As we head into the tropical season we have some variables that will dictate this season outcome. So let’s dive into this a bit. First off this a forecast and no guarantee. The tropics will evolve with time with water temperature,shear,Saharan Dust. Seasons since 1966 the avg for storms is less than 10 hurricanes around 5 avg major hurricane avg is 2 or less. Stronger winds in eastern Atlantic and all have lot to do with El Niños but Caribbean Sea also needs to be looked at for shear. Also factors Saharan dust water temps all will play huge roles like noted at beginning. As this El nino just starting we will refrain from the potential for a less than 12 storm season. Possibly 2-3 will spin off in Gulf or off the east coast in those Gulf Stream waters. SST this warm leads us to believe limiting factors of a EL Nino May not inhibit the formation of tropical cyclones like it has in the past. And also we need to look at Cape Verde as the potential area to spin off so the Atlantic region and climatology speaking that’s indeed the area to have the bulk. If the High pressure stays located where it is now for the season in the Atlantic that could be enough for some landfalls but that’s always shifting so we refer back to climatology. We will see land fall just where of course. But the chances are less with neutral to strong El nino. Climate definitely warmer all data shows that. And that’s the difference between now and the past years that are in 1900’s if you wanted to reference back. Crazy thing is one brief period of 2-3 weeks that has slightly good conditions can make this go average to slightly above and that’s possible but that’s a discussion for middle of the season as we are too far out to know really. We as a group with all the information we have available have came up with a 2023 Tropical Outlook. Here’s our numbers for projected Storms.
Eastern US WX Group
15 Storms
7 Hurricanes
3 Major Hurricanes
1991-2020 Average
14.4 Named Storms
7.2 Hurricanes
3.2 Major Hurricanes
There’s so many driving factors in a tropical forecast. Trying to know what will happen past 5 days is impossible to know but trends are something to look at and also climo. For overall outlooks that what has happened and what to look for will be updated first week of every month if the tropical season. We will have details during storms as the occur. Til then be safe, and weather aware.
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