5/6/2023 Tropics Forecast Outlook As we head into the tropical season we have some variables that will dictate this season outcome. So let’s dive into this a bit. First off this a forecast and no guarantee. The tropics will evolve with time with water temperature,shear,Saharan Dust. Seasons since 1966 the avg for storms is less than 10 hurricanes around 5 avg major hurricane avg is 2 or less. Stronger winds in eastern Atlantic and all have lot to do with El Niños but Caribbean Sea also needs to be looked at for shear. Also factors Saharan dust water temps all will play huge roles like noted at beginning. As this El nino just starting we will refrain from the potential for a less than 12 storm season. Possibly 2-3 will spin off in Gulf or off the east coast in those Gulf Stream waters. SST this warm leads us to believe limiting factors of a EL Nino May not inhibit the formation of tropical cyclones like it has in the past. And also we need to look at Cape Verde as the potenti...